Bracketology 3/2

I will be posting Bracketology on Tuesday as well.  Tuesday will still be my "true" Bracketology day complete with "Best Matchup", "Upset Alert" and "Yawner."  For today's post, I will give you current, up the minute matchups as well as best case scenarios for each squad as well as who they have left. If win% may come into play for any team, I've included that as well Here goes...

DIVISION 1 (opponents and best possible point total and % (if applicable) in parenthesis)

D1 will not look like this when the tourney starts. For starters, NDF is likely to defeat NWC which would vault them to the #1 spot. Prep is likely to defeat East Haven which would put them in a tie for #2 with NDWH where they would lose that tie breaker. Some seeds are set though, including the bottom three which include "non-qualifiers" Hamden, Simsbury and St. Joseph. If Glastonbury defeats Branford they can move to a #6 seed. Finally, I believe all top 8 teams as they stand right now will get home ice in one way or another. The best any of the teams outside of the top 8 can do right now is West Haven at a potential 81 point finish but that still keeps them behind any teams in the top 8.

MY PROJECTED FINISH:

(1) NDF 
(2) NDWH 
(3) Prep 
(4) Darien 
(5) Ridgefield 
(6) Glastonbury 
(7) New Canaan 
(8) East Haven 
(9) West Haven 
(10) NWC 
(11) Xavier 
(12) South Windsor 
(13) Greenwich 
(14) Hamden 
(15) Simsbury 
(16) St. Joseph

PAIRINGS IF SEASON ENDED TODAY

(16) St. Joseph (1) NDWH 

St. Joseph- 28 points .375% (no remaining games)

NDWH- 111 points (no remaining games)

9) West Haven @ 8) Glastonbury

West Haven- 75 points (Milford- 81 points)

Glastonbury- 85 points (Branford- 91 points)

12) South Windsor @ 5) Ridgefield

South Windsor- 47 points (Cheshire- 53 points)

Ridgefield- 93 points (no remaining games)

13) Greenwich @ 4) Fairfield Prep

Greenwich- 41 points (no remaining games)

Fairfield Prep- 102 points (East Haven- 111)

11) Xavier @ 6) New Canaan

Xavier- 54 points (no remaining games)

New Canaan- 87 points (no remaining games)

14) Hamden @ 3) Darien

Hamden- 51 points .325% (no remaining games)

Darien- 108 points (no remaining games)

10) Northwest Catholic @ 7) East Haven

Northwest Catholic- 54 points (ND Fairfield- 63 points)

East Haven- 85 points (Fairfield Prep- 94)

15) Simsbury @ 2) ND Fairfield

Simsbury- 50 points .375% (no remaining games)

ND Fairfield- 109 points (Northwest Catholic- 118 points)

DIVISION 2

East Catholic has the #1 seed locked up but if Amity defeats North Branford they can jump all the way up to the #2 seed. After a strong season, New Milford is in jeopardy of losing a home first round game. If Milford wins either of their final games against Suffield or West Haven, they will leap the Wave. It appears that the current top seven teams are all assured of home ice but may shift around a bit. At the bottom end, Fairfield looks locked in as one of the three "non-qualifiers" as their .350% should hold up. Wilton also looks safe at .325%. If Fermi-Enfield beats Conard that will end the faint playoff fate hopes the remaining teams have. If Fermi loses to Conard, they fall into a tie with Watertown-Pomperaug at .275%. Not sure on the tiebreaker here, but WP would have one more point than Fermi, so I think they'd take it. It looks like, based on percentage points,  Conard, BBD, Guilford, Trumbull and Farmington Valley are eliminated.

MY PROJECTED FINISH:

1) East Catholic 
2) Amity 
3) Branford 
4) Newington-Berlin 
5) North Haven 
6) Trinity Catholic 
7) BCR 
8) Milford Co-op 
9) Cheshire 
10) New Milford 
11) Suffield-Granby-WL 
12) Daniel Hand 
13) North Branford 
14) Fermi-Enfield 
15) Fairfield Co-op 
16) Wilton

PAIRINGS IF SEASON ENDED TODAY

16) Wilton @ 1) East Catholic

Wilton- 18 points .325 (no remaining games)

East Catholic- 79 points (St. Bernard-NFA-Bacon- 81 points)

9) Milford Co-op @ 8) New Milford

Milford Co-op- 49 points (SGWL, West Haven- 64 points)

New Milford- 53 points (no remaining games)

12) Daniel Hand @ 5) Amity

Daniel Hand- 41 points (Guilford- 45 points)

Amity- 64 points (North Branford- 70 points)

13) North Branford @ 4) Trinity Catholic

North Branford- 41 points (Amity, BBD- 51 points)

Trinity Catholic- 64 points (no remaining games)

11) Cheshire @ 6) Newington-Berlin

Cheshire- 46 points (South Windsor- 55 points)

Newington-Berlin- 62 points (Hall-Southington- 65 points)

14) Fairfield Co-op @ 3) North Haven

Fairfield Co-op- 23 .350% (no remaining games)

North Haven- 65 points (no remaining games)

10) Suffield-Granby-WL @ 7) BCR

Suffield-Granby-WL- 47 points (Milford, Wethersfield- 54 points)

BCR- 56 points (RMR- 58 points)

15) Fermi-Enfield @ 2) Branford

Fermi-Enfield- 21 points .289% (Conard- 25 points .325%)

Branford- 69 points (Glastonbury- 78 points)

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:

17) Watertown-Pomperaug

Watertown-Pomperaug- 22 points .275% (no remaining games)

18) Conard

Conard- 20 points .211% (Fermi-Enfield- 24 points, .250%)

19) BBD

BBD- 17 points .158% (North Branford- 23 points .200%)

20) Guilford

Guilford- 14 points .167% (Hand, Wethersfield- 22 points .250%)

21) Trumbull

Trumbull- 11 points .200% (no remaining games)

22) Farmington Valley

Farmington Valley- 9 points .200% (no remaining games)

DIVISION 3

The top five seeds are pretty locked up in D3 unless Hall-Southington runs the table against Newington-Berlin, Housy and Wethersfield. D3 is the most confusing division when it comes to the new qualifying rules. Only 11 teams, including Woodstock Academy at 6-9, .400%, have qualified. This means, five additional teams are added to fit the required 16 teams. The next best five win % belong to Westhill, Wethersfield, Shepaug, Joel Barlow and St. B's. They are then seeded by points but in this scenario they're already in order. On an interesting note, another team can join this fray soon. If Tri-Town loses their season finale to Newtown, they will finish 7-11-1, a .394%. This would cause there to be only 10 teams at D3 40% or above. Also, it could affect points because Tri-Town would no longer count as a "bonus point" team. Stay tuned.

MY PROJECTED FINISH:

1) Masuk 
2) Newtown 
3) Sheehan 
4) EO Smith-Tolland 
5) NFI 
6) Hall-South 
7) Housy 
8) Staples 
9) LHK 
10) Woodstock 
11) Tri-Town, 
12) Westhill 
13) Wethersfield 
14) Joel Barlow 
15) Shepaug 
16) St. Bernard-NFA-Bacon

PAIRINGS IF SEASON ENDED TODAY

16) St. Bernard-NFA-Bacon @ 1) Masuk

St. Bernard-NFA-Bacon- 6 points .167% (Eastern CT Eagles, East Catholic- 14 points .250%)

Masuk- 50 points (no remaining games)

9) Tri-Town @ 8) Staples-Weston-Shelton

Tri-Town- 22 points (Newtown- 25 points)

Staples-Weston-Shelton- 30 points (no remaining games)

12) Westhill @ 5) NFI

Westhill- 19 .350% (no remaining games)

NFI- 38 points (no remaining games)

13) Wethersfield @ 4) EO Smith-Tolland

Wethersfield- 17 points .294% (SGWL, Hall-South, Guilford- 30 points .400%)

EO Smith-Tolland- 39 points (no remaining games)

11) Woodstock Academy @ 6) Housatonic-NW-Wamogo

Woodstock Academy- 13 points .400% (no remaining games)

Housatonic-NW-Wamogo- 32 points (Hall-South- 35 points)

14) Shepaug-Litchfield-Nonnewaug @ 3) Sheehan

Shepaug-Litchfield-Nonnewaug- 12 points .250% (no remaining games)

Sheehan- 39 points (no remaining games)

10) Lyman Hall-HK @ 7) Hall-Southington

Lyman Hall-HK- 20 points (RMR- 22 points)

Hall-Southington- 30 points (Newington-Berlin, Housy, Wethersfield- 41 points)

15) Joel Barlow @ 2) Newtown

Joel Barlow- 12 points .211% (Norwalk-McMahon- 14 points .250%)

Newtown- 41 points (Tri-Town- 44 points)

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:

17) Norwalk-McMahon

Norwalk-McMahon- 6 points .158% (Joel Barlow- 8 points .200%)

18) Stamford

Stamford- 10 points .150% (no remaining games)

19) Rocky Hill-Middletown-RHAM

RMR- 4 points .111% (BCR, Lyman Hall-HK- 13 points .200%)

20) Eastern CT Eagles

Eastern CT Eagles- 3 points .053% (St. Bernard-NFA-Bacon- 5 .100%)