Bracketology (2/15/15)

Even though the formula is rather easy to figure out with 16 teams making the tournament at each division, I thought I'd release, every Sunday, the state tournament matchups for each division if the season ended today according to the CIAC's current rankings. This changes with each win, loss and tie but I will weekly post it for those inquiring minds. Also not factored into this equation are teams that are either disqualified or close to being disqualified due to excessive majors. However, I will do my best to keep you all updated on that front as well. After yesterday's fracas between St. Joseph and Trinity Catholic both of those teams could be in hot water if their count was high. Conflicting reports have ejection totals ranging from 4-8 total. If I am correct, an ejection is a DQ and would count against your state total. Again, much of this is speculative and Trinity Catholic had an uphill climb to become eligible at D2 based on performance but a SJ disqualification would certainly shake up a tidy D1 bracket. At last count, three teams were at five majors. The only confirmed team that I have is Shepaug, who has been playing great, clean hockey of late.  Enjoy!

DIVISION 1

16) South Windsor (1-13, 6 points) @ 1) Greenwich (14-1-2, 93 points)

9) Xavier (6-5-2, 60 points) @ 8) Simsbury (9-7, 61 points)

12) East Catholic (8-6, 57 points) @ 5) Darien (12-2-1, 75 points)

13) Northwest Catholic (8-9, 57 points) @ 4) Ridgefield (13-4, 75 points)

11) West Haven (8-6-1, 59 points) @ 6) Fairfield Prep (8-7, 72 points)

14) New Canaan (9-4-3, 52 points) @ 3) Glastonbury (11-3-1, 77 points)

10) ND West Haven (6-6-2, 60 points) @ 7) Hamden (8-6-1, 67 points)

15) St. Joseph (9-5-1, 39 points) @ 2) ND Fairfield (9-7, 78 points)

Best Matchup- (3) Glastonbury vs. (14) New Canaan- Normally a 3/14 wouldn't be as competitive as this game would be. NC has a fine wins/loss but many of those wins have come against lower division opponents. Recently though, the Rams play has improved. Glastonbury has been strong all year but would have their hands full with this quality FCIAC opponent.

Upset Alert- (7) Hamden vs. (10) NDWH- Hamden hasn't beaten the Knights in forever and lost to them 4-2 a few weeks back. The two face off again on Feb. 25 and the rivalry still has a bit of a buzz to it. NDWH isn't as strong as they've been in years past so I'd say no time is better for Hamden to break the losing streak against the Knights, but the Dragons have been struggling of late. Either way, this is the type of matchup you love to see come tournament time.

Yawner- (2) ND Fairfield vs. (15) St. Joseph- ND Fairfield handled the Cadets earlier this year when they were a much weaker team than they are now. St. Joe's has gone in the other direction, losing their freshmen netminder Ryan Wilson to injury and now has some serious suspension troubles. In fact, if they get four players suspended, including senior goalie Dylan Batterson, I'm not sure how they field a team tomorrow against Darien. So all that being said, I think NDF would cruise in this one now that they are fully stocked.

DIVISION 2

16) BCR (5-9, 13 points, .357) @ 1) Conard (10-4, 64 points, .714)

9) Milford (8-6, 33 points, .571) @ 8) Cheshire (7-7-1, 37 points, .500)

12) Wilton (6-8, 25 points, .429) @ 5) SGWL (10-4, 48 points, .714)

13) Trumbull (6-11, 21 points, .353) @ 4) Newington-Berlin (12-4, 55 points, .750)

11) North Haven (6-6-1, 28 points .500) @ 6) New Milford (9-4-2, 40 points, .667)

14) Guilford (5-8, 18 points, .385) @ 3) North Branford (12-4, 55 points, .750)

10) Fermi-Enfield (8-7, 28 points, .533) @ 7) Fairfield (10-5, 37 points, .667)

15) Watertown-Pomperaug (5-9, 15 points, .357) @ 2) Branford (13-2, 61 points, .867)

Best Matchup- (8) Cheshire vs. (9) Milford)- Milford won their matchup this year 5-3. This is a what you look for in a 8/9 matchup. As evenly matched as can be. Milford really turned their season around after struggling out of the gate. Cheshire has battled with everyone and recently narrowly lost to top dog Branford 4-3. This would be a battle.

Upset Alert- (6) New Milford vs. (11) North Haven- Honestly, I think I would pick all home teams if these games were to be played now and I don't consider a 9 beating an 8 an upset, so I turn to this one. North Haven is a good hockey team who plays as hard of a D2 schedule as anyone. New Milford has already had some head scratchers this year like losing to Wilton and BBD. If that team shows up, the Indians could prosper.

Yawner- (1) Conard vs. (16) BCR- BCR is 1-5 vs. D2 opponents this year with their lone win coming against D2's worst Farmington Valley. Conard, who ironically enough, missed out on last year's tournament would cruise in this one. But the same could be said for many other D2 high seeds vs. low seeds this year. D2 has had 13 seeds win back to back state titles, but D2 just doesn't seem that deep this year to see something like that happen again.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:

17) Daniel Hand (3-8-1, 19 points .292)

18) Amity (3-12-1, 14 points, .219)

19) Trinity Catholic (3-12, 12 points, .200)

20) East Haven (3-12, 11 points, .200)

21) Farmington Valley (2-11, 4 points, .154)

DIVISION 3

16) Lyman Hall-HK-Cog (4-10, 8 points, .286) @ 1) Masuk (12-2, 39 points, .857)

9) Redhawks (7-7, 22 points, .500) @ 8) Tri-Town (8-7, 24 points, .533)

12) Shepaug (7-7, 17 points, .500) @ 5) Staples-Weston-Shelton (8-8, 25 points, .500) 

13) BBD (5-9, 24 points, .357) @ 4) Westhill (7-6-1, 28 points, .536)

11) Joel Barlow (8-6, 21 points, .571) @ 6) Housy-NW-Wamogo (9-4-1, 24 points, .679)

14) Eastern CT Eagles (4-10, 13 points, .286) @ 3) NFI (11-6, 32 points, .647)

10) Woodstock Academy (8-5, 21 points, .615) @ 7) Sheehan (8-4, 24 points, .667)

15) Hall-Southington (4-11, 13 points, .267) @ 2) EO Smith-Toll (11-2, 35 points, .846)

Best Matchup- (6) Housy vs. (11) Barlow- These two just met with Housy winning in OT. They are a very evenly matched team with some underrated star power in players like Jason Diamond, James Huften, Wes Reel, Finn Bamberry, Billy Berry, Kyle Converse and Charlie Berry. This one would be fun to watch and could go either way. 

Upset Alert- (7) Sheehan vs. (10) Woodstock- The Centaurs play everybody pretty tough and while I think Sheehan is the better team on paper, the Titans are fighting it bad right now. Luckily for them the tournament doesn't start today. If it did, I might be picking Woodstock. As it is, this would be a good matchup and we get a preview when these teams play next Monday.

Yawner- (3) NFI vs. (14) Eastern CT Eagles- Let's be real, the Eagles are only in this position because of a 3-1 start to the year and a recent win over Everett (MA). With that win they are 1-9 since their great start. NFI is a far superior opponent and this one would get ugly fast.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:

17) Newtown (3-11, 10 points, .214)

18) Stamford (3-14, 6 points, .176)

19) Norwalk-McMahon (1-15-1, 4 points, .088)

20) WMR (0-14, 0 points, .000)

*Clarification on divisions where fewer than 16 teams meet the 40% qualifying standard*

1. In a division where fewer than 16 teams meet the 40% qualifying standard, a full bracket of 16 teams will be achieved by qualifying teams with next highest winning percentages. If ties exist when comparing winning percentages, the remaining spots in the 16 team bracket will be filled using the tie-breaker procedure, where the first tie-breaker will be power points. Should teams be tied by power points, the tie- breaker system already in place will be followed.