Bracketology (2/22)

Even though the formula is rather easy to figure out with 16 teams making the tournament at each division, I thought I'd release, every Sunday, the state tournament matchups for each division if the season ended today according to the CIAC's current rankings. This changes with each win, loss and tie but I will weekly post it for those inquiring minds. Also not factored into this equation are teams that are either disqualified or close to being disqualified due to excessive majors. It appears as of now that only Trinity Catholic is deemed ineligible for the tournament due to excessive majors. However, it has been reported that there is another team with seven. Enjoy!

DIVISION 1

Darien made a big jump this week moving from #5 to #2, Hamden continues to fall. The top 8 are separated from the bottom 8 by 11 points, some pretty clear division among the ranks, only in terms of points, not necessarily talent. 

16) South Windsor (2-14, 15 points) @ 1) Greenwich (16-1-2, 105 points)

9) Simsbury (10-8, 67 points) @ 8) ND West Haven (8-6-5, 78 points)

12) New Canaan (10-6-3, 61 points) @ 5) Ridgefield (14-5, 84 points)

13) West Haven (8-8-1, 59 points) @ 4) Glastonbury (12-3-1, 86 points)

11) East Catholic (9-6, 66 points) @ 6) Fairfield Prep (9-8, 81 points)

14) Northwest Catholic (8-10, 57 points) @ 3) ND Fairfield (10-8, 87 points)

10) Hamden (8-9-1, 67 points) @ 7) Xavier (8-5-3, 81 points)

15) St. Joseph (9-7-1, 39 points) @ 2) Darien (15-2-1, 102 points)

Best Matchup- (10) Hamden @ (7) Xavier- The two teams played to an OT Hamden win the first time out. They have gone in complete opposite directions since then, but Hamden has the skill players able to compete with Xavier. Xavier is probably the more athletic, quicker team and if it was played right now I would side with the Falcons. However, Hamden could be a different team come tourney time.

Upset Alert- (13) West Haven @ (4) Glastonbury- Not saying this would happen. The whole state knows I believe in Thibodeaux, but this is a game that would come down to just that, the goaltending. Mike Savino has the ability to be the best goalie in the state. Neither one of these teams will blow your mind when it comes to offense, but the Westies as a 13 seed are scary.

Yawner- (15) St. Joseph @ (2) Darien- Not a knock on St. Joe's but Darien is scary good right now. Massie has been fantastic in net, Pardue and co. could be the best line in the state and St. Joe's is 0-7-1 vs. D1 teams this season.

DIVISION 2

Top 5 teams stay seeded the same this week while North Haven jumps from #11 to #8. Hand would be eligible if the tourney started now, while WP dropped out.

16) BCR (6-11, 16 points, .353) @ 1) Conard (11-4, 70 points, .733)

9) Fermi-Enfield (11-7, 40 points, .611) @ 8) North Haven (8-6-2, 41 points, .562)

12) Wilton (7-10, 27 points, .412) @ 5) SGWL (12-4, 56 points, .750)

13) Guilford (7-10, 26 points, .412) @ 4) Newington-Berlin (13-5, 56 points, .722)

11) Milford (8-8, 35 points .500) @ 6) Fairfield (12-6, 49 points, .667)

14) Daniel Hand (4-8-1, 25 points, .346) @ 3) North Branford (12-4, 57 points, .750)

10) Cheshire (7-8-1, 37 points, .469) @ 7) New Milford (10-4-2, 48 points, .688)

15) Trumbull (6-12, 21 points, .333) @ 2) Branford (13-3, 63 points, .812)

Best Matchup- (11) Milford @ (6) Fairfield- These two just played. Fairfield won 1-0. They are evenly matched and this would be a great first round matchup. I think the Mustangs are the better team. Jake Fuss is legit and their goaltending has been solid all year, but the matchup is fantastic.

Upset Alert- (10) Cheshire @ (7) New Milford- Tough one to call here too. These teams skated to a 2-2 tie earlier this year and the Wave were able to beat the Rams 4-3 more recently. Because of how close those games were, that's my justification for putting NM on upset alert. It's not because I think Cheshire is the better team, I think it's a toss up. I just think out of all the first round matchups this has the best chance for an upset.

Yawner- (1) Conard vs. (16) BCR- Same as last week. BCR is just not in the same league as Conard. They let up too many goals. In games against current D2 qualifiers BCR has been outscored 32-6.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:

17) Amity (4-13-1, 22 points, .250)

18) East Haven (4-13, 17 points, .235)

19) Watertown-Pomperaug (5-12, 15, .294)

20) Trinity Catholic (4-14, 14 points, .222)

21) Farmington Valley (2-12, 4 points, .143)

DIVISION 3

The 8 home teams, if the tourney started today, remain the same with the only change being Staples moving up to #4 and Westhill dropping a spot to #5. Barlow moves from #11 to #9 while a few other lower seeds shift one spot. The 16 teams from last week remain in tact.

16) Lyman Hall-HK-Cog (4-12, 8 points, .250) @ 1) Masuk (14-2-1, 48 points, .853)

9) Joel Barlow (9-8, 24 points, .529) @ 8) Tri-Town (8-7-1, 25 points, .531)

12) Shepaug (9-7, 22 points, .562) @ 5) Westhill (9-7-1, 34 points, .559)

13) BBD (6-10, 27 points, .375) @ 4) Staples-Weston-Shelton (11-8, 34 points, .579) 

11) Woodstock (9-7, 23 points, .562) @ 6) Housy-NW-Wam (10-4-2, 27 points, .688)

14) Hall-Southington (5-13, 15 points, .278) @ 3) NFI (12-6, 36 points, .667)

10) Redhawks (8-8, 24 points, .500) @ 7) Sheehan (9-5, 26 points, .643)

15) Eastern CT Eagles (4-12, 13 points, .250) @ 2) EO Smith-Toll (14-2, 44 points, .875)

Best Matchup- (9) Barlow @ (8) Tri-Town- These two haven't met this year but this would be an even pairing. Barlow seems to have more jump off the page players, but their depth is a big question mark. Tri-Town is a deeper team and could wear down JB. This one is a toss up which you love to see out of your 8/9 matchups.

Upset Alert- (12) Shepaug @ (5) Westhill- This seems very counter to what I've been saying all year about Westhill, a disciplined FCIAC team that just seems to always play well. However, they are just 2-2 against current D3 qualifiers and were exposed slightly in a 5-2 loss to Staples recently. This selection as an upset alert is more focuses on Shepaug's improved play of late. They've won 7 straight, 6 of those 7 coming against current D3 qualifiers. I would probably still pick Westhill if they played right now, but it's not a no brainer the way it was earlier this year.

Yawner- (15) Eagles @ (2) Bucks- EO has a way of dismantling weaker opponents. It's their play against comparable opponents that worries me, but that's a discussion for another time. The Eagles would be infinitely overmatched in this one. 

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:

17) Newtown (3-14, 10 points, .176)

18) Stamford (3-16, 6 points, .158)

19) Norwalk-McMahon (1-17-1, 4 points, .079)

20) WMR (0-15, 0 points, .000)

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*Clarification on divisions where fewer than 16 teams meet the 40% qualifying standard*

1. In a division where fewer than 16 teams meet the 40% qualifying standard, a full bracket of 16 teams will be achieved by qualifying teams with next highest winning percentages. If ties exist when comparing winning percentages, the remaining spots in the 16 team bracket will be filled using the tie-breaker procedure, where the first tie-breaker will be power points. Should teams be tied by power points, the tie- breaker system already in place will be followed.