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Sunday, March 1, 2015

Bracketology (3/1)

Even though the formula is rather easy to figure out with 16 teams making the tournament at each division, I thought I'd release, every Sunday, the state tournament matchups for each division if the season ended today according to the CIAC's current rankings. This changes with each win, loss and tie but I will weekly post it for those inquiring minds. Also not factored into this equation are teams that are either disqualified or close to being disqualified due to excessive majors. It appears as of now that only Trinity Catholic is deemed ineligible for the tournament due to excessive majors. However, it has been reported that another team is at seven. Enjoy!

(Includes current record, current points and potential max amount of points)


Greenwich and Darien are locked into the #1 and #2 spots. With a win over Prep, Xavier locks up the #3 spot. If they lose and Glastonbury beats SW, those two flip flop. Either way Greenwich, Darien, Xavier and Glastonbury will make up the top 4. NDF is currently #5. If Prep beats Xavier, they will leap them and if the Lancers lose to NDWH they would finish tied at 87, at which time NDWH would beat them in a tie breaker. NDF could finish anywhere from 5-7. Prep currently sits as a 9 seed and a visitor in the first round. With a loss to Xavier, they stay there. A win and a NDF loss, puts them as the 5 seed. A win and a NDF win puts them as a 6 seed. NDWH also needs to win this week to gain home ice in the first round. As it is they are outside looking in but a win over NDF will give NDWH either a 5 seed with a Prep loss or a 6 seed with a Prep win. If NDWH finishes tied at 78 points with East Catholic (which is likely if they lose) they lose that tie breaker due to EC having more total wins. Hamden is guaranteed home ice. If Prep and NDWH lose to Xavier and NDF, Hamden will get the 6 seed but they could drop to the 8 spot with Prep and NDWH wins. Ridgefield is left watching. As of now they are sitting at #7 but if both Prep and NDWH win, they drop out of top 8. Simsbury sits in a precarious spot as well. They currently have home ice but would lose it if either NDWH or Prep wins this week. New Canaan sits at 70 points and the 11 spot. East Catholic could leap them with two wins this week. NWC is at #13 but would get leapt by West Haven with an Indians loss and a Blue Devils win. St. Joe's is locked in at 15 and South Windsor at 16. Basically seed 1-4 are grouped as well as seeds 12-16. It's the middle teams that could be impacted.

16) South Windsor (3-15, 19 points, 34 points) @ 1) Greenwich (17-1-2, 114 points, 114 points)
9) Fairfield Prep (9-9, 81 points, 90 points) @ 8) Simsbury (12-8, 82 points, 82 points)

12) East Catholic (10-8, 70 points, 78 points) @ 5) ND Fairfield (10-9, 87 points, 96 points)
13) Northwest Catholic (9-10, 63 points, 69 points) @ 4) Glastonbury (14-4-1, 101 points, 107 points)

11) New Canaan (11-6-3, 70 points, 70 points) @ 6) Hamden (10-9-1, 85 points, 85 points)
14) West Haven (8-9-2, 61 points, 67 points) @ 3) Xavier (11-5-3, 105 points, 114 points)

10) ND West Haven (8-8-2, 78 points, 87 points) @ 7) Ridgefield (14-6, 84 points, 84 points)
15) St. Joseph (10-8-1, 45 points, 45 points) @ 2) Darien (17-2-1, 114 points, 114 points)


The top three spots will come down to Conard, SGWL and Branford. Branford can't finish higher than #2 but no lower than #3. SGWL and Conard still play each other so the winner of that game will likely get the #1 seed. New-Ber, Fairfield, North Branford, New Milford and North Haven will make up some combination of seeds 4-8. Daniel Hand could finish tied with NH if they win out but would lose the head to head. New-Ber and Fairfield are set at 60 and 59 points respectively. North Branford has two very winnable games left against Trumbull and Tri-Town and should leap those two to move into the #4 seed. If New Milford, currently #7, beats East Haven, they too, would leap New-Ber and Fairfield. North Haven has two challenging games left with Branford and Milford but if the red hot Indians are able to keep up their recent pace, they will also leap Fair & NewBer, but they would need to win BOTH of their remaining games to do so. Likely, North Branford will finish #4 but after that it's a crap shoot. New Milford should beat East Haven to move to #5 and while it's very possible, a betting man wouldn't have North Haven beating both Branford and Milford. However, I think it does happen, but that would be way too much speculating for this post. Regardless, seeds 4-8 will be composed of some arrangement of those 5 teams. Fairfield and Newington-Berlin, however, sit helplessly as their seasons' have ended. Fermi is locked at 46 points and currently sit in the 9 spot. Cheshire needs to beat West Haven to be able to leap Fermi while Milford would need to beat both Hand and North Haven to hop over the Enfield co-op. Guilford and Wilton's regular seasons are done and they sit at 12 and 13 respectively. Daniel Hand, however, still has three games left against Milford, EC and WP. They can leap over those two if they win two of those three and can land as high as #9 if they win out. It drops off after that. Trumbull is at #15 with 21 points while WP sits at #16 with 20 points. BCR, Amity and East Haven all have mathematical scenarios that get them in with BCR's being the most realistic with Farmington Valley left. Speaking of the Generals, they're done, as is Trinity Catholic. Those are the only two mathematically eliminated teams at the D2 level.

16) Watertown-Pomp (6-13, 20 points, 24 points .316) @ 1) Conard (13-5, 74 points, 86 points .722)
9) Fermi-Enfield (13-7, 46 points, 46 points .650) @ 8) North Haven (9-6-3, 50 points, 62 points .583)

12) Guilford (9-10-1, 37 points, 37 points .475) @ 5) Fairfield (14-6, 59 points, 59 points .700)
13) Wilton (9-11, 35 points, 35 points .450) @ 4) Newington-Berlin (14-6, 60 points, 60 points .700)

11) Milford (9-9, 38 points, 48 points .500) @ 6) North Branford (12-5-1, 59 points, 66 points .694)
14) Daniel Hand (5-10-2, 31 points, 50 points .353) @ 3) Branford (14-5, 67 points, 73 points .737)

10) Cheshire (7-10-1, 39 points, 48 points .421) @ 7) New Milford (12-5-2, 57 points, 61 points .684)
15) Trumbull (6-13, 21 points, 27 points .316) @ 2) SGWL (14-4, 68 points, 83 points .778)

17) BCR (6-13, 16 points, 20 points .316)
18) Amity (4-14-1, 22 points, 31 points .237)
19) East Haven (5-14, 21, 27 points .263)
20) Trinity Catholic (4-16, 14 points, 14 points .200)
21) Farmington Valley (3-15, 6 points, 13 points .167)


EO Smith Tolland locked up the #1 seed with their OT win over D2's Newington-Berlin Saturday night. By default, Masuk has locked up the #2 seed as they can't be caught by anyone below them. Included among those teams is Westhill who, despite winning only 11 of 20 games, locks up the #3 seed due to their strength of schedule. BBD sits at the #4 spot despite being under .500 due to the CIAC's power points awarded to teams who beat out of state teams. Can't fault BBD, they won the games they needed to and now are in a profitable spot. They can however drop if they lose their finale to Sheehan or if they win and NFI wins, those two would finish tied at 41 points, a tie breaker NFI would win. BBD, Sheehan and NFI are likely to compose the 4-7 seeds but one of them could drop down given scenarios that have Housy winning their final two games and moving up to 37 points. NFI is likely to finish with 41 points and take the #4 spot. If Sheehan beats BBD, Sheehan would take the #5 and BBD would get the #6. If BBD beats Sheehan BBD would get the #5 and Sheehan could drop to #7 if Housy wins out vs. Shepaug and Woodstock. Staples sits relatively helpless in the #7 spot now. They can't finish any higher than 7th, could fall to 8th but would only drop of the top 8 with Tri-Town beating North Branford and Housy winning one of their final two. Barlow isn't as fortunate. They sit at 31 points but their regular season is finished. This means, Housy only needs to win one of their final two to secure home ice in the first round bumping the Falcons to a road game. Woodstock is an interesting team at this point but would need to upset the Bucks and beat Housy to secure home ice in the first round. Currently they sit 12th just behind the Redhawks who finish with Masuk. If NFA loses to Masuk and Woodstock can beat Housy or EO, then WA takes the 11 spot. Shepaug finishes with Housy as well and can finish with as many as 29 points with a win. They sit 13th right now, and would face BBD in the first round. These few teams can bounce around the 9-13 seeds but likely won't see home ice. Beating the Bucks and Masuk is tough so to bank on that would be unrealistic. Likely, Bucks, Masuk, Westhill are 1-3, some combination of NFI, BBD, Sheehan, Housy, Staples are 4-8 and Barlow, Woodstock, Shepaug, NFA and Tri-Town jumbled in seeds 9-13. It's a little more clear after that. Hall-Southington sits at #14 right now and can't gain any more points. The Eastern CT Eagles are #15 with games against WMR and Norwalk left. Conceivably, they can move into a tie for the #14 spot with a win or into the #14 spot all alone with two wins. Lyman Hall sits at #16 with 8 points. The only team who can catch them is Newtown. As of right now LHK has a better winning percentage which gives them the edge but if Newtown beats WMR both LHK and Newtown would finish 4-16. Newtown, however, would beat LHK in a tie breaker based on power points 12-8. A Newtown loss to WMR and LHK is safe. Stamford, Norwalk-McMahon and WMR are all mathematically eliminated. 

16) Lyman Hall-HK-Cog (4-16, 8 points, 8 points .200) @ 1) EO Smith Tolland (17-2, 58 points, 61 points .895)
9) Housy-NW-Wam (11-5-2, 31 points, 37 points .667) @ 8) Joel Barlow (12-8, 31 points, 31 points .600)

12) Woodstock Academy (10-8, 26 points, 32 points .556) @ 5) NFI (12-7, 37 points, 41 points .632)
13) Shepaug-Litch-Non (10-9, 26 points, 29 points .526) @ 4) BBD (8-11, 38 points, 41 points .421) 

11) Redhawks (10-9, 28 points, 31 points .526) @ 6) Sheehan (12-7, 35 points, 38 points .632)
14) Hall-Southington (5-15, 15 points, 15 points .250) @ 3) Westhill (11-8-1, 44 points, 44 points .575)

10) Tri-Town (9-9-1, 29 points, 35 points .500) @ 7) Staples (11-9, 34 points, 34 points .550)
15) Eastern CT Eagles (4-14, 13 points, 17 points .222) @ 2) Masuk (16-2-1, 54 points, 57 points .868)

17) Newtown (3-16, 10 points, 12 points .158)
18) Stamford (3-17, 6 points, 6 points .150)
19) Norwalk-McMahon (1-17-1, 4 points, 6 points .079)
20) WMR (1-17, 2 points, 6 points .056)


*Clarification on divisions where fewer than 16 teams meet the 40% qualifying standard*

  1. In a division where fewer than 16 teams meet the 40% qualifying standard, a full bracket of 16 teams will be achieved by qualifying teams with next highest winning percentages. If ties exist when comparing winning percentages, the remaining spots in the 16 team bracket will be filled using the tie-breaker procedure, where the first tie-breaker will be power points. Should teams be tied by power points, the tie- breaker system already in place will be followed

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