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Monday, March 2, 2015

Manic Monday

Twelve games on the slate today. Many with state tournament implications. I posted an updated Bracketology yesterday. Since that post Milford leaped Cheshire into the 10th spot in D2 with their 3-0 win over Hand. It's important to remember that all discussions of games and potential matchups, seeding, etc. is all subject to change mainly because of the newly implemented and extremely tight lipped major rule. At last check Trinity Catholic was over the limit but they've been eliminated based on overall performance anyway. I have also been told that there is another team over the limit, but I do not have the name of that club. We know that teams like St. Joe's and Shepaug (both tourney teams) are at the limit but as of now, that's all we know.

SGWL @ Northwest Catholic, 4:30 @ ISCC
Suffield-Granby-Windsor Locks, currently #2 at D2 has a huge game today against D1's Northwest Catholic, currently #13 at the D1 level. If NWC loses, WH can leap them with a win over Cheshire. If NWC wins, they would be locked in at #13. For SGWL, the scenario is a little more complicated and involves a few more games. If they lose and Conard loses to SW on Tuesday, then their season finale against each other would be for the #1 seed, as SGWL would win the head to head if that scenario played out. If Conard beats SW and SGWL loses to NWC then they are locked in at Conard #1 and SGWL #2 no matter what happens in the finale.

Redhawks @ Masuk, 4:30 @ The Rinks at Shelton
Masuk can't finish any higher or lower than #2. So this game is a good tune up for them. There's a major log jam, however, lower down in the seeding. Seed 8-13 are separated by only 5 points. The Redhawks sit 11th right now but could earn three huge points with a win tonight. While it likely won't happen, the farthest NFA could fall is #13 with a loss. 

East Catholic @ Daniel Hand, 4:45 @ Northford Ice Pavilion
If Hand wins out they become an automatic qualifier at 7-11-2. That will be a tall task facing East Catholic so it will likely come down to percentage points among other teams below the 40% mark. A win today should lock up a bid for the Tigers as there are a few scenarios that have them missing the tourney if a handful of unlikely upset wins occur. Best case for the Tigers, is quite a jump. If they win out, they would jump from #14 to #10 and go from being one of the sub 40%ers to an automatic qualifier. East Catholic handled the Tigers easily last week and both teams have played a ton of games in a short amount of time. The Eagles are sitting at #12 right now with two winnable games left, including this one. That's 8 points which would put them in a tie with NDWH at 78 if the Knights lose to NDF tonight. East Catholic would win that tie breaker based on total wins. It still wouldn't get them any higher than a #10 seed, however.

Farmington Valley @ NFI, 5:20 @ Danbury Ice Arena
Farmington Valley has been eliminated from state contention. NFI, with a win would move into the #4 spot in the D3 rankings currently occupied by BBD. A loss could drop them as far as #7.

Notre Dame-West Haven @ Notre Dame-Fairfield, 5:45 @ Milford Ice Pavilion
The Battle of the ND's has some intrigue this year. A win for the Lancers and they lock up the #5 seed. An NDWH win momentarily ties the two ND's at 87 points but NDWH would win that tie breaker after winning the season series in that scenario. NDF could finish as high as #5 or as low as #7. NDWH could finish as high as #5 or as low as #11 with a loss.

Fairfield Prep @ Xavier, 6:00 @ Freeman Athletic Center
Huge game at Wesleyan tonight. Xavier is playing for the #3 seed. With a win it's theirs, a loss and a Glastonbury win over South Windsor and they fall to #4. Prep is playing for much more... home ice in the first round. The Jesuits sit in unfamiliar territory at #9 right now but a win over Xavier would propel them all the way to either #5 or #6. They would land the #5 spot if NDWH beats NDF tonight and land at the #6 spot if NDF wins. 

North Branford @ Trumbull, 6:30 @ The Rinks at Shelton
North Branford is in a great position despite some recent struggles. They are currently #6 in D2 but can move into #4 with a win in either tonight's game against Trumbull or their finale against Tri-Town. A win for Trumbull would be monstrous and a huge shake up at the bottom of D2. Not only would it all but assure them that they'd be in with a 7-13 record but it would force some other teams back down. As it is they currently sit ranked #15 but a win would give them the best winning percentage of all the teams sub 40%. 

Branford @ North Haven, 7:00 @ Northford Ice Pavilion
Branford has certainly been struggling of late and because of that they can no longer earn the D2 #1 seed. However, they can finish as high as #2 and no lower than #3. This game is way more important for North Haven. The Indians are currently #8. If they can manage to win this one and their finale against Milford, the Indians could move all the way up to the #5 spot leaping Fairfield, New-Ber and New Milford. I believe they can get as high as #4 if North Branford loses to Trumbull and they win out. Big couple games for Graziano and co.

Sheehan @ BBD, 7:30 @ Danbury Ice Arena
A BBD win and a NFI loss locks up the #4 seed.  A BBD win and a NFI win locks up the #5 seed for BBD. If Sheehan beats BBD as they did earlier this year, then the Titans would get the #5 seed with an NFI win and the #4 seed with a NFI loss. If Sheehan loses, it's possible that Housy could still leap them as well if they win out.

South Windsor @ Glastonbury, 7:30 @ Trinity College
South Windsor is locked into the D1 #16 spot and should be scouting Greenwich. Glastonbury could finish as high as #3 but would need Prep to beat Xavier tonight. Tomahawks can't finish any lower than #4.

Woodstock Academy @ EO Smith-Tolland, 7:30 @ Freitas Ice Arena
The Bucks have clinched the #1 overall seed in the D3 tourney so this game, like Masuk's, should serve as a tune up. Woodstock is among those aforementioned teams clustered between seeds 8-13 in the D3 rankings. However, if Woodstock can somehow beat the Bucks and Housy to finish out the year and get some help, they can gain home ice in the first round of the tourney.

Housy @ Shepaug, 8:00 @ The Gunnery
Housy currently sits at #9 while Shepaug holds down the #13 spot. Only five points separate the two teams so this game is huge. Neither team can finish lower than #13. Housy can move up into the top 6 if they win out and some other things go their way while Shepaug can finish as high as 29 points an can not gain home ice in the first round.

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