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Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Bracketology (2/25)

Today, I'm posting Bracketology with a focus on teams making it into the tournament on the back end. In D1, all 16 teams will make the tourney. The only adjustment may be with any teams below a winning percentage of 40%. This, right now, applies to three teams. Regardless of total points, these teams would be seeded below the last team to qualify and then arranged by points among themselves.  At D2, right now 13 teams have qualified. That means 3 of 9 teams are battling for the final spots. They are selected based on the best three winning percentages and then arranged by total points. At D3, 11 teams have qualified. That means 5 of 9 teams are battling for the final five spots and the rule applies for them too.

16) St. Joseph @ 1) Darien
9) West Haven @ 8) Glastonbury

12) Northwest Catholic @ 5) ND Fairfield
13) Greenwich @ 4) Fairfield Prep

11) Simsbury @ 6) New Canaan
14) Hamden @ 3) Ridgefield

10) Xavier @ 7) East Haven
15) South Windsor @ 2) ND West Haven

Darien, Ridgefield and New Canaan all have finished up their regular season slate so they can be leapt. NDWH, Prep, NDF, Glastonbury, WH, NWC, Greenwich and SW all have favorable schedules here on out and can move up. Simsbury, Xavier, EH and Hamden have schedules that are considered challenging here on out. Hamden has two tough games to finish up and if South Windsor wins enough to get over 40%, as I anticipate them doing, Hamden would fall to the 15 seed. SJ can not finish any higher than 16.

Best Matchup- (10) Xavier @ (7) East Haven- Xavier continues their climb up the rankings. East Haven has built up a strong record but is largely unproven. This one would be extremely closely contested.

Upset Alert- (14) Hamden @ (3) Ridgefield- I wouldn't want to draw a perennial power like Hamden and veteran coach Bill Verneris in a first round high/low seed game like this. After all, Ridgefield narrowly snuck by Hamden 2-1 a week ago.

Yawner- (13) Greenwich @ (4) Fairfield Prep- A 13 seed is high even for a Greenwich team that has played well of late. This would be quite the favorable draw for Prep.

16) Wilton @ 1) East Catholic
9) Cheshire @ 8) Amity

12) Suffield-Granby-WL @ 5) Newington-Berlin
13) Daniel Hand @ 4) Trinity Catholic

11) North Branford @ 6) BCR
14) Fermi-Enfield @ 3) North Haven

10) Milford Co-op @ 7) New Milford
15) Fairfield Co-op @ 2) Branford

D2 and D3 are a lot more tricky than D1 simply because of the number of teams. 13 teams qualify because they are over 40%. Fermi-Enfield (.344), Fairfield (.368) and Wilton (.342) have the three best winning percentages of the remaining teams. Therefore, they make it and are then reseeded based on total points. This wouldn't really affect Fermi or Fairfield as they would be in either way but does greatly help Wilton who in terms of points is ranked 18th. It bumps Conard who would be the 16th seed if it was based on points but Conard has a much less impressive winning percentage of (.235). 

Only Trinity Catholic, Newington-Berlin and Daniel Hand have what I consider favorable schedules here on out and should move up. East Catholic, Branford, BCR, New Milford, North Branford and Milford all have average to tough remaining schedules while Amity, Suffield, Fermi, BBC, Conard, Guilford and Farmington Valley have what I'd consider very difficult roads here on out. Teams like North Haven, Cheshire, Fairfield, WP, Wilton, and Trumbull all have one game remaining that should be considered challenging.

Right now, barring some serious surprises it appears BBD, Guilford, Trumbull and Farmington Valley are done.

Best Matchup- (9) Cheshire@ (8) Amity- This is a repeat from last week. No reason to change it. If the Rams and Spartans met up it would be an old fashioned, classic SCC tilt.

Upset Alert- (10) Milford @ (7) New Milford)- Not a big stretch here. The Indians were able to pull the "upset" last week in overtime. This could easily be our "Best Matchup" as well.

Yawner- (14) Fermi-Enfield vs. (3) North Haven- The seeds changed but the game didn't. North Haven should be able to handle Fermi quite easily.

17) Conard (.235)
18) Watertown-Pomperaug (.289)
19) BBD (.167)
20) Guilford (.188)
21) Trumbull (.211)
22) Farmington Valley (.167)

16) St. Bernard-NFA-Bacon @ 1) Masuk
9) Tri-Town @ 8) Housatonic-NW-Wamogo

12) Westhill @ 5) EO Smith-Tolland
13) Shepaug-Litchfield-Nonnewaug @ 4) Sheehan

11) Woodstock Academy @ 6) Hall-Southington
14) Joel Barlow @ 3) NFI

10) Lyman Hall-HK @ 7) Staples-Weston-Shelton
15) Wethersfield @ 2) Newtown

As of now, 11 teams have qualified for the state tournament with winning percentages over 40%. Westhill (.316), Shepaug (.278), Joel Barlow (.235), Wethersfield (.214), and St. Bernard-NFA-Bacon (.176) have the next five highest winning percentages of the remaining teams. Therefore, they make it and are reseeded based on points. This helps a team like St. B's who would not make the tournament simply based on points but hurts a team like Stamford who would be the 15 seed if we were solely going by points but has a (.158) winning percentage. St. B's and Norwalk have matching (.176) so St. B's got in "By Lot." Sheehan and EO also finish tied but Sheehan gained the higher seed "By Lot." Wethersfield sneaks in as a 15 seed because of their (.214) winning percentage but with six games remaining, all of which they will be the underdog in, they are likely to drop out. Barring a miracle, RMR and Eastern CT Eagles are probably out.

Masuk, Newtown, Sheehan and Lyman Hall-HK have what are considered favorable schedules here on out and should move up or stay up. NFI, EO Smith-Tolland and Hall-Southington all have average to tough remaining schedules while Housatonic, Tri-Town, Woodstock, Shepaug, Wethersfield, St. B's, RMR, Norwalk and Eastern CT all have what I'd consider very difficult roads here on out. Teams like Staples, Westhill, Joel Barlow and Stamford all have one game remaining that should be considered challenging.

Best Matchup- (9) Tri-Town @ (8) Housatonic-NW-Wamogo- Housy finds themselves slipping each time we rerank. Tri-Town can compete with most D3's. This one would be close and I'm not confident in either team to predict a winner. A true 8/9 matchup.

Upset Alert- No real upsets present themselves with the exception of maybe (12) Westhill keeping it close with (5) EO Smith but I think the Bucks are strong enough that I can't officially call for that upset.

Yawner- (16) St. Bernard-NFA-Bacon vs. (1) Masuk- See the last couple week's posts. Somehow this matchup keeps coming up. It would be ugly.

17) Norwalk-McMahon
18) Stamford
19) Rocky Hill-Middletown-RHAM
20) Eastern CT Eagles

1 comment:

  1. Interesting that your 'upset alert' includes a team that wouldn't have even qualified for the tournament a year ago (Hamden).